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2016 WSOP Main Event Odds

Las Vegas sets the odds on various players winning the WSOP Main Event each year, but often the numbers reflect the popularity of the players more than there actual chances of winning.

In 2016, for example, Phil Ivey was the favorite at 40-to-1, and yet, he was likely to be too busy playing cash games in Macao to even show up in Las Vegas.1

Daniel Negreanu was second at a more reasonable 60-to-1 (he finished 11th in both 2001 and 2015). Allen Cunningham was fine at 100-to-1 (4th place in 2006), but Gus Hansen wasn't (his best finish was 61st back in 2007).

Other overpriced players include Tom Dwan at 200-to-1 (has never cashed), Doyle Brunson at 400-to-1 (not likely to play), Howard Lederer at 600-to-1 (the amount of pressure on him if he made a deep run would be overwhelming given his status as persona non grata due to the Full Tilt Poker meltdown; Chris Ferguson was probably also overvalued since his price was 200-to-1, but at least he still has a lot of fans), Chris Moneymaker at 700-to-1 (hasn't cashed in any WSOP event since 2007), Darvin Moon at 1,000-to-1 (hasn't cashed in any WSOP event besides his 2009 WSOP ME runner-up finish), and Jennifer Tilly at 1,000-to-1 (Phil Laak at 700-to-1 is no better, as his only money finish was 412th last year).

Selbst was the top woman at 400-to-1. Maria Ho and Vanessa Rousso were 800-to-1, while Cyndy Violette, Jennifer Harman, and Mimi Tran were 1,000-to-1 (and all much better bets than Tilly).

On the other hand, Jason Mercier, one of the summer's hottest players, was a relative bargain at 125-to-1.

Some relatively new bets included:

Winner's Birthplace

Before Johnny Chan in 1987, every WSOP ME winner was born in the U.S. Since then, 16 of the 28 winners were born in the U.S., 6 in "Other", 4 in Europe, 1 in Australia, and 1 in Canada. "Other" looked like the best bet here by far.

Age of Winner

Noel Furlong was the last person older than 41 to win a championship in 1999. Since then, it's been a young man's game, but especially since the November Nine began in 2008. Every single winner starting with Peter Eastgate has been under 27.5. Take the "Under".

Winning Hand at Final Table

Of the 44 winning hands from 1972 to 2015, only 13 have been as weak as a pair (9 pairs and 4 high cards). Take the 'Two Pair and Higher' bet.

Number of U.S. Players at Final Table

Since 2008, the final table has contained 5, 7, 6, 4, 8, 5, 4, and 6 Americans, an average of 5.6; or more importantly, six were 'Over' and only two were 'Under'. Take the 'Over'.


Ivey did show up but didn't cash. Of course, none of the other people listed above won either. "The field" remains the best bet with so many players.

A relatively obscure pro named Qui Nguyen won. He was from the U.S., 39 years old, and had just a pair of Kings on the final hand.

The final table had five Americans.